The Philippines and the US

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Sertorio
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The Philippines and the US

Post by Sertorio » Tue Feb 11, 2020 2:46 pm

Philippines Tells U.S. It Will End Military Cooperation Deal
By Jason Gutierrez, Thomas Gibbons-Neff and Eric Schmitt - Feb. 11, 2020

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/11/worl ... terte.html

MANILA — The Philippines said Tuesday it had officially informed the United States that it was scrapping a military pact that has given the longtime American ally a security blanket for the past two decades.

The notice to terminate the pact, the Visiting Forces Agreement, comes as President Rodrigo Duterte has warmed up to China while distancing himself from the United States, the Philippines’ former colonial ruler. The move also comes as the Philippines has shown increasing reluctance to stand up to China over its territorial claims in the South China Sea.

The agreement has let the United States rotate its forces through Philippine military bases. It has allowed for about 300 joint exercises annually between the American and Philippine militaries, said R. Clarke Cooper, the assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs. He told reporters Monday the termination of the agreement would put those operations “at risk.”

The pact still remains in force, but the notice to terminate it, delivered to the American Embassy in Manila, starts a clock under which it will remain in effect for 180 days before lapsing.

“The deputy chief of mission of the United States has received the notice of termination of the Visiting Forces Agreement,” Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin said on Twitter in announcing the move.

(...)

In recent years, the United States has stepped up naval maneuvers with the Philippines as it seeks to counter China’s growing challenge to the decades-long American naval dominance of the South China Sea. The frequency of those maneuvers has alarmed some in the Philippines, with the defense secretary, Delfin Lorenzana, warning last year that they could provoke conflict with China.

In addition to courting the Philippines, China has used its clout and economic might to bring other Southeast Asian countries into its sphere of influence, including Cambodia, which American officials fear is being turned by Beijing into a military outpost for Chinese ambitions.

In recent months, American diplomats, and to a lesser extent Pentagon officials, have been engaged in a campaign to forge stronger relationships with countries in China’s orbit. Tuesday’s announcement will undoubtedly hamper those efforts as bilateral military exercises have long been a linchpin of the American-Philippines partnership.

(...)

“Trump and others are trying to save the Visiting Forces Agreement,” [Duterte] added of the American president. “I told them, I do not want to. One is that Americans are very ill mannered,” he said, cursing Central Intelligence Agency agents who he said may be listening to him.

He also dismissed the deterrent effect of American forces against outside influences like China.

“They do not mean harm,” he said of China and its military, as long as “we do not also do something that is harmful to them.”
Slowly the US will be squeezed out of East Asia. Now it's the Philippines, but someday it may be South Korea and Japan. The US has no business in Asia.

neverfail
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Re: The Philippines and the US

Post by neverfail » Wed Feb 12, 2020 1:14 am

You do not know the Philippines Sertorio. It's current president, Rodrigo Duterte, is a fool.

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Sertorio
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Re: The Philippines and the US

Post by Sertorio » Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:39 am

neverfail wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 1:14 am
You do not know the Philippines Sertorio. It's current president, Rodrigo Duterte, is a fool.
Maybe. But so is Trump and Johnson and Macron and...

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Re: The Philippines and the US

Post by neverfail » Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:58 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:39 am
neverfail wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 1:14 am
You do not know the Philippines Sertorio. It's current president, Rodrigo Duterte, is a fool.
Maybe. But so is Trump and Johnson and Macron and...
I don't wish to engage you in a hair-splitting contest over which of these are the bigger fools ( :) ): but Duterte represents the worst of a whole succession of Philippines governments who have mishandled relations with both the USA and the Peoples Republic of China - causing detriment and loss to the Philippines as a whole.

Duterte's background is that of a provincial cop on the remote island of Mindanao. He built up a name for himself throughout the country with news of his ruthless meting out of rough justice to narcotic drug racketeers within his jurisdiction. He rode to electoral victory on the back of that surge of popularity due to his image as "the man who gets things done".

He seems to be clueless in conducting foreign policy. His background in one of the most remote parts of the country apparently gave him no previous exposure to the art and nuances international diplomacy.

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Sertorio
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Re: The Philippines and the US

Post by Sertorio » Sun Feb 16, 2020 4:42 am

The Philippines Want the U.S. Out and They Are Not Alone
by Tim Kirby - February 15, 2020

The pawns of the Grand Chessboard are starting to move much more boldly – in an unpredicted by the punditry decision the Philippines have asked U.S. forces to leave their islands indefinitely. It was impossible to think even 10 or 15 years ago that a country as completely militarily helpless as the Philippines would dare to stand up to Uncle Sam, but now this has become a reality. In a microcosm this move could be blamed on Duterte’s fiery personal character, or as some sort of fluke, but this is a growing trend that will probably continue for at least the next few years, in which ideology actually plays a major unseen role.

The Philippines are a poor troubled island nation that is starting to get its house in order thanks mostly to a powerful charismatic central figure, but if we look at the country through the lens of “Geopolitics 101” then we can see that this nation has more value than one would think due to its location.

If we can believe the maps of U.S. base locations presented to us via various forms of media then we can see that even without Manila’s blessing the U.S. still dominates the Pacific Ocean as a whole. Total control of the Atlantic and the Pacific thanks to the Allied victory in WWII has been very good for America to say the least and they need to continue to maintain it. The thing that makes losing the Philippines bad for the U.S. is that it could seriously erode the U.S.’s ability to create a naval blockade around China.

Although not stated explicitly one of the key reasons for China’s Belt and Road Initiative is the fact that at any moment Washington could completely cut off China’s sea trade. One of the reasons why Chinese goods have come to dominate the global market is due to the rise of cheap shipping costs. Loading a massive boat with cheap goods allows China to make things on the other half of the world for far less, than American workers can in their own country. But without waterways (cheap shipping), the Chinese advantage would be smashed and China as we know it today could be shattered.

The Philippines are located in the region of a potential Naval blockade, meaning that without them suffocating the Chinese from a naval standpoint becomes much more difficult and perhaps impossible. Not surprisingly, Duterte has been accused of making a pivot to China so perhaps his motivations for getting rid of the U.S. are not entirely morality based, but then again as a weak country the only way for the Philippines to matter is by playing great powers against themselves (or perhaps Chinese bribe money is sweeter). It is very possible that for this group of islands to have any sovereignty it needs bigger players to be fighting over it.

It may be too early to say because of Duterte’s bold move “the dominos are falling” but this is not the only nation that is trying to or has successfully removed U.S./NATO forces. The Kyrgyz ended foreign operations in their country most of which used their largest airport in Bishkek. (On a personal note it was very odd and humiliating to see an international airport with more foreign military planes in Bishkek than civilian, there were also many accusations of bad behavior towards locals including one alleged murder). Surprisingly even the Iraqi government which was essentially built by the U.S. has asked their forces to leave the country after the assassination of Iranian General Soleimani. Even the Mainstream Media admits that tens of thousands of Japanese have protested against U.S. bases in other country (again due to alleged abuse of locals). However, the government of Japan has made no formal requests to have U.S. forces leave, but quietly the constitutional ban on having a real military is being worn away by Tokyo as it has seen its first round of military expansion in decades.

In order for the U.S. to maintain its global military presence it needs to take a look at cases in which occupation has been seen as a positive by locals – South Korea. No matter what one’s personal feelings are about the North and South, the simple fact of the matter is that the Korean Peninsula is an all or nothing game. If the U.S. were to give up on Seoul then the North (with Chinese support) would come down and “unify” the nation. Many South Koreans are happy with the status quo and without the USA being around their lives are going to change quickly violently (and from their perspective) for the worse. This American necessity is not felt in Iraq, the Philippines or Kyrgyzstan, but if Washington wants to remain in these places they need to create it. The Cold War is over and America’s classic strategy of “side with Capitalism and you’ll get jeans and cars” is [no] longer an option as the Chinese and to a lesser extent the Russians can also offer up plenty of Materialism.

A key factor in the Cold War division of the world was ideology. This allowed the U.S. and USSR to put foreign bases all over the planet. The collapse of America’s ideological strength will continue to allow uppity nations to one-by-one say good-bye forever. “The Russian are bad” or “we’ll give you Materialism” are no longer enough to justify foreign occupation. Washington needs to come up with a new ideological strategy and the Russians and Chinese need to be ready for this and at the same time continue to chip away at the failing Monopolar World. When locals see people they perceive as foreigners dominated their country, walking around with guns and occasionally abusing locals there needs to be some sort of grand justification for this.

In the Philippines there is not such justification. There is no reason from Manila’s or the man-on-the-street’s perspective that American troops should be in their country. The ideological erosion of American values after the U.S. victory in the Cold War must be stopped if the U.S. wants to remain the only global hyperpower.

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/ ... not-alone/

neverfail
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Re: The Philippines and the US

Post by neverfail » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:09 pm

Sertorio.

Re; the Tim Kirby article: I have to concede that having US bases on your country's soil is not the biggest treat in the world. Yank GI's have this way of overstaying their welcome. Yet the small fry of south east Asia need to host strong ties with the USA as the only visible alternative to being gobbled up by voracious China.

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Sertorio
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Re: The Philippines and the US

Post by Sertorio » Sun Feb 16, 2020 5:29 pm

neverfail wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:09 pm
Sertorio.

Re; the Tim Kirby article: I have to concede that having US bases on your country's soil is not the biggest treat in the world. Yank GI's have this way of overstaying their welcome. Yet the small fry of south east Asia need to host strong ties with the USA as the only visible alternative to being gobbled up by voracious China.
I don't think China wants to gobble up anyone. After five thousand years they must have realized that they can only count on themselves to solve their problems. Peaceful coexistence and lots of trade that's all they need. Imperial urges do not last five thousand years...

neverfail
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Re: The Philippines and the US

Post by neverfail » Sun Feb 16, 2020 8:31 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 5:29 pm
neverfail wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:09 pm
Sertorio.

Re; the Tim Kirby article: I have to concede that having US bases on your country's soil is not the biggest treat in the world. Yank GI's have this way of overstaying their welcome. Yet the small fry of south east Asia need to host strong ties with the USA as the only visible alternative to being gobbled up by voracious China.
I don't think China wants to gobble up anyone.
Out of politeness, I shall abstain from laughing.
Sertorio wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 5:29 pm
After five thousand years they must have realized that they can only count on themselves to solve their problems.


China, like Russia, is embedded in the midst of a continental landmass flanked by multiple foreign states. That always makes control of ones terrestrial neighbours look tempting as the key to secure frontiers. It is in that regard that Russia and China seem to have have a shared interest as partners in crime.
Sertorio wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 5:29 pm
Peaceful coexistence and lots of trade that's all they need.
Peaceful coexistence and lots of trade is what they have already - thanks to the WTO sponsored by the United States which admitted China to its ranks over 2 decades ago. But that is apparently not enough to satisfy the present Chinese leadership - whose ambition is to build China up into a World power to supplant and eclipse all others.

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Re: The Philippines and the US

Post by Doc » Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:52 pm

Trump said he is fine with Duerte's refusal to allow US troops in the Philippines without visas.

Translation:

What ever it was the Duerte thought he was going to get in exchange for reversing himself isn't going to happen.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

neverfail
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Re: The Philippines and the US

Post by neverfail » Mon Feb 17, 2020 1:11 am

Doc wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:52 pm
Trump said he is fine with Duerte's refusal to allow US troops in the Philippines without visas.

Translation:

What ever it was the Duerte thought he was going to get in exchange for reversing himself isn't going to happen.
Thanks Doc.

I have long been curious about your avatar.

What is it?

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