Trump-Putin friendship could be all about oil and China.

Discussion of current events
Post Reply
neverfail
Posts: 2517
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 3:47 am

Trump-Putin friendship could be all about oil and China.

Post by neverfail » Sun Aug 05, 2018 5:37 am

http://www.atimes.com/article/trump-put ... and-china/
In many respects, Russia is still an oil- and gas-dependent economy where oil and gas export revenues represent two-thirds of its export earnings and half of its federal budget. What happens to the price of oil is a matter of national security and survival for Russia. The last thing it needs is the US competing with it in the European oil and gas market.

Fixing the price of oil at a level that helps Russia meet its budgetary needs cannot be achieved without American support and collusion. Saudi Arabia, the Russians know, will toe the US line as it has always done; besides, the Americans are now increasingly assuming the role of the swing producer that the Saudis have played for decades.
Putin would need to be certifiably mad to give up Russia's alliance of convenience with China. Putin is no madman.

User avatar
Milo
Posts: 1406
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 10:14 pm

Re: Trump-Putin friendship could be all about oil and China.

Post by Milo » Sun Aug 05, 2018 6:47 am

neverfail wrote:
Sun Aug 05, 2018 5:37 am
http://www.atimes.com/article/trump-put ... and-china/
In many respects, Russia is still an oil- and gas-dependent economy where oil and gas export revenues represent two-thirds of its export earnings and half of its federal budget. What happens to the price of oil is a matter of national security and survival for Russia. The last thing it needs is the US competing with it in the European oil and gas market.

Fixing the price of oil at a level that helps Russia meet its budgetary needs cannot be achieved without American support and collusion. Saudi Arabia, the Russians know, will toe the US line as it has always done; besides, the Americans are now increasingly assuming the role of the swing producer that the Saudis have played for decades.
Putin would need to be certifiably mad to give up Russia's alliance of convenience with China. Putin is no madman.
Oil is like an addictive drug, it's no so much alliances where it's concerned as necessities, from the addict's point of view. It's ruining the world's health. Many are prostituting themselves for it. There's no shortage of justifications for the addiction. And the world, by and large, does not have the guts to go to rehab.

Mr. Perfect
Posts: 568
Joined: Sat Jan 07, 2017 11:24 pm

Re: Trump-Putin friendship could be all about oil and China.

Post by Mr. Perfect » Sun Aug 05, 2018 1:14 pm

Very true, even people who believe in MMGW use as much oil as those who don't.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017 ... ng-danger/
Conservationists take nine flights a year, despite knowing danger to environment, study shows

Conservationists may preach about the importance of going green to save the planet, but most have a carbon footprint which is virtually no different to anyone else, a new study has shown.


Scientists as Cambridge University were keen to find out whether being fully informed about global warming, plastic in the ocean or the environmental impact of eating meat, triggers more ethical behaviour.

But when they examined the lifestyles of conservation scientists they discovered most still flew frequently – an average of nine flights a year – ate meat or fish approximately five times a week and rarely purchased carbon offsets for their own emissions.

They were also less green in travelling to work than medics, and kept more dogs and cats. A recent study suggested pets are a hefty ecological burden. It takes more than two acres of grazing pasture to keep a medium-sized dog fed with meat, while the eco-footprint of a cat is similar to a Volkswagen Golf.

Mr. Perfect
Posts: 568
Joined: Sat Jan 07, 2017 11:24 pm

Re: Trump-Putin friendship could be all about oil and China.

Post by Mr. Perfect » Sun Aug 05, 2018 1:29 pm

With recent research I have determined that if you:

1 fly in an airplane
2 drive in a car
3 eat meat
4 have a housepet

you simply do not believe in man made global warming. As such, I can't find very many people, perhaps 1% of westerners who believe in global warming.

User avatar
cassowary
Posts: 2304
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 11:30 pm

Re: Trump-Putin friendship could be all about oil and China.

Post by cassowary » Sun Aug 05, 2018 5:47 pm

neverfail wrote:
Sun Aug 05, 2018 5:37 am
http://www.atimes.com/article/trump-put ... and-china/
In many respects, Russia is still an oil- and gas-dependent economy where oil and gas export revenues represent two-thirds of its export earnings and half of its federal budget. What happens to the price of oil is a matter of national security and survival for Russia. The last thing it needs is the US competing with it in the European oil and gas market.

Fixing the price of oil at a level that helps Russia meet its budgetary needs cannot be achieved without American support and collusion. Saudi Arabia, the Russians know, will toe the US line as it has always done; besides, the Americans are now increasingly assuming the role of the swing producer that the Saudis have played for decades.
Putin would need to be certifiably mad to give up Russia's alliance of convenience with China. Putin is no madman.
The author is arguing that oil might bring the US and Russia closer together. As oil and gas exporters they now share a common interest.

neverfail
Posts: 2517
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 3:47 am

Re: Trump-Putin friendship could be all about oil and China.

Post by neverfail » Mon Aug 06, 2018 12:50 am

cassowary wrote:
Sun Aug 05, 2018 5:47 pm

The author is arguing that oil might bring the US and Russia closer together. As oil and gas exporters they now share a common interest.
Well, oil and gas, combined with Western sanctions on Russia, brought Russia (as supplier) and China (as consumer) closer together. That to me provides a more solid basis for "coming closer together" than when two countries with an identical export commodity competing with one another for third country markets.

User avatar
cassowary
Posts: 2304
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 11:30 pm

Re: Trump-Putin friendship could be all about oil and China.

Post by cassowary » Mon Aug 06, 2018 4:48 am

neverfail wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 12:50 am
cassowary wrote:
Sun Aug 05, 2018 5:47 pm

The author is arguing that oil might bring the US and Russia closer together. As oil and gas exporters they now share a common interest.
Well, oil and gas, combined with Western sanctions on Russia, brought Russia (as supplier) and China (as consumer) closer together. That to me provides a more solid basis for "coming closer together" than when two countries with an identical export commodity competing with one another for third country markets.
What I had in mind is that they both have an interest in pushing oil and gas prices up. Saudi Arabia, the US and Russia can co-operate to keep oil and gas prices up. Maybe the US and Russia will join OPEC. Unlikely in my view.

neverfail
Posts: 2517
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 3:47 am

Re: Trump-Putin friendship could be all about oil and China.

Post by neverfail » Mon Aug 06, 2018 3:14 pm

cassowary wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 4:48 am

What I had in mind is that they both have an interest in pushing oil and gas prices up. Saudi Arabia, the US and Russia can co-operate to keep oil and gas prices up. Maybe the US and Russia will join OPEC. Unlikely in my view.
Yep, I can see that point too Cass, as you can. But apart from putting more money in the pockets of US big oil and Russian oligarchs, what would it achieve?

It would raise input costs for US industry, agriculture and transport right across the board; thereby pricing a range of potential US exports out of the world market. It would also add to inflationary pressures within the USA; hitting home budgets not only at the petrol bowser but from the multiple effects of price rises on most other consumer goods. Not popular with voters, especially with the working class poor who would be hit hardest and whom Trump purports to champion.

Then there is Russia. Yes, it would temporarily save the Russian state budget but prolong Russia's economic dependence on oil and gas exports. Surely Russia's salvation lies in weaning itself off oil and gas by boosting a range of non-petroleum based exports? Double difficult if burgeoning exports of oil and gas inflate the 4x value of their rouble.

Frankly cass, I think that it is a bad idea that should be axed!
..................................................................................

P.S. Singapore would only be marginally affected. As a compact, island city state the cost of transporting goods and people from one side of your country to the other would be minimal even if the cost of oil goes up. The cost-inflation pressures would be felt, rather, in your import bill. Just remember, however, that the World is not Singapore.

User avatar
cassowary
Posts: 2304
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 11:30 pm

Re: Trump-Putin friendship could be all about oil and China.

Post by cassowary » Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:03 pm

neverfail wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 3:14 pm
cassowary wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 4:48 am

What I had in mind is that they both have an interest in pushing oil and gas prices up. Saudi Arabia, the US and Russia can co-operate to keep oil and gas prices up. Maybe the US and Russia will join OPEC. Unlikely in my view.
Yep, I can see that point too Cass, as you can. But apart from putting more money in the pockets of US big oil and Russian oligarchs, what would it achieve?

It would raise input costs for US industry, agriculture and transport right across the board; thereby pricing a range of potential US exports out of the world market. It would also add to inflationary pressures within the USA; hitting home budgets not only at the petrol bowser but from the multiple effects of price rises on most other consumer goods. Not popular with voters, especially with the working class poor who would be hit hardest and whom Trump purports to champion.

Then there is Russia. Yes, it would temporarily save the Russian state budget but prolong Russia's economic dependence on oil and gas exports. Surely Russia's salvation lies in weaning itself off oil and gas by boosting a range of non-petroleum based exports? Double difficult if burgeoning exports of oil and gas inflate the 4x value of their rouble.

Frankly cass, I think that it is a bad idea that should be axed!
..................................................................................

P.S. Singapore would only be marginally affected. As a compact, island city state the cost of transporting goods and people from one side of your country to the other would be minimal even if the cost of oil goes up. The cost-inflation pressures would be felt, rather, in your import bill. Just remember, however, that the World is not Singapore.
I agree with you completely, neverfail. It will harm all oil & gas importers and even the US which will soon be a net exporter. I prefer to see oil and gas prices low so as the give Putin and the Arabs a big whack.

User avatar
Sertorio
Posts: 1775
Joined: Fri Dec 16, 2016 3:12 am

Re: Trump-Putin friendship could be all about oil and China.

Post by Sertorio » Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:05 am

neverfail wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 3:14 pm

Then there is Russia. Yes, it would temporarily save the Russian state budget but prolong Russia's economic dependence on oil and gas exports.
Image

I don't think that the Russian state budget needs "saving"...

Post Reply