Two conflicting views on Syria's future.

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neverfail
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Two conflicting views on Syria's future.

Post by neverfail » Thu Oct 31, 2019 3:36 am

The pessimistic view - from the Economist magazine (Assad is a monster):
Assad’s hollow victory
Syria will poison the region for years to come
Bashar al-Assad is on the verge of retaking Idlib province, the last rebel stronghold. But that will not end the chaos he has wrought at home and abroad

Assad or we burn the country.” For years Bashar al-Assad’s troops have daubed that phrase onto walls in the towns they recapture. The insurgents pushed the dictator to the brink. But Mr Assad shrugged off the empty threats of Western leaders, and enlisted the help of Iran and Russia. True to his slogan, he destroyed whole cities and gassed and starved his own people. What rebels remain are holed up in Idlib province. It, too, will soon fall. Against all the odds, the monster has won.

Yet it is a hollow victory. Far from bringing order to the country, as the Russians and Iranians claim, Mr Assad has displaced half the population. Eight years of civil war have destroyed the economy and cost 500,000 lives. Mr Assad has nothing good to offer his people. His country will be wretched and divided. The consequences will be felt far beyond its borders.
The optimistic view from Asia Times - by Pepe Escobar (after a quibbling intro that makes Assad look like a normal statesman) :oops: :
Rebuilding Syria – without Syria’s oil
Compare US pillaging with Russia-Iran-Turkey’s active involvement in a political solution to normalize Syria

Then there’s the nagging issue that simply won’t go away: the American drive to “secure the oil” (Trump) and “protect” Syrian oilfields (the Pentagon), for all practical purposes from Syria.

In Geneva, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov – alongside Iran’s Javad Zarif and Turkey’s Mevlut Cavusoglu – could not have been more scathing. Lavrov said Washington’s plan is “arrogant,” and violates international law. The very American presence on Syrian soil is “illegal,” he said.

All across the Global South, especially among countries in the Non-Aligned Movement, this is being interpreted, stripped to the bone, for what it is: the United States government illegally taking possession of natural resources of a third country via a military occupation.

And the Pentagon is warning that anyone attempting to contest it will be shot on sight. It remains to be seen whether the US Deep State would be willing to engage in a hot war with Russia over a few Syrian oilfields.

Under international law, the whole “securing the oil” scam is a euphemism for pillaging, pure and simple. Every single takfiri or jihadi outfit operating across the “Greater Middle East” will converge, perversely, to the same conclusion: US “efforts” across the lands of Islam are all about the oil.

Now compare that with Russia-Iran-Turkey’s active involvement in a political solution and normalization of Syria – not to mention, behind the scenes, China, which quietly donates rice and aims for widespread investment in a pacified Syria positioned as a key Eastern Mediterranean node of the New Silk Roads.
Take your pick!

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Sertorio
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Re: Two conflicting views on Syria's future.

Post by Sertorio » Thu Oct 31, 2019 5:30 am

The Economist is the mouthpiece of the western oligarchy and its interests, so it isn't surprising that it was willing to write such a preposterous article, full of lies. Bashar al-Assad is no saint but he is the only known person in Syria capable of moving Syria towards a more legitimate regime, where the opposition will be able to function normally. A secular regime in which all Syrians of all faiths will be accepted. No country in the West - particularly the US and the UK - has any viable alternative to al-Assad. Under the vigilance of Russia, Syria may become the first Arab country where political peace and legitimacy will be possible, together with a growing economy. Which will very much bother Israel, which will have to give up the Golan.

neverfail
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Re: Two conflicting views on Syria's future.

Post by neverfail » Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:28 am

Unless you subscribe to the Economist online (I don't and you probably don't also Sertorio) you would not have read the article in full. However, I have a borrowed copy of the relevant edition that features that editorial and having read it in full I can only say that it makes sense. Tomorrow I will endeavor to scan the editorial and post it on this website. No promises though.

Of course there is no replacement for Assad: what could you expect from a hereditary tyranny that has had 3 generations to eliminate all political opponents with leadership potential. Bashir al-Assad started the civil war going (in 2011) when his troops (armed thugs) fired on peaceful protest street demonstrators who I believe at the time were not even demanding his replacement - only for a change in government policy. This man has no authority to govern Syria having blown it in 2011 and ever since. He can rule Syria using fear (terror) as his tool of choice but can never command respect. Regardless of how much Putin's Russia and Iran gain from Assad's victory I believe that Syria has nothing other than a bleak future in front of it.

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Sertorio
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Re: Two conflicting views on Syria's future.

Post by Sertorio » Fri Nov 01, 2019 3:04 am

neverfail wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:28 am
Unless you subscribe to the Economist online (I don't and you probably don't also Sertorio) you would not have read the article in full. However, I have a borrowed copy of the relevant edition that features that editorial and having read it in full I can only say that it makes sense. Tomorrow I will endeavor to scan the editorial and post it on this website. No promises though.

Of course there is no replacement for Assad: what could you expect from a hereditary tyranny that has had 3 generations to eliminate all political opponents with leadership potential. Bashir al-Assad started the civil war going (in 2011) when his troops (armed thugs) fired on peaceful protest street demonstrators who I believe at the time were not even demanding his replacement - only for a change in government policy. This man has no authority to govern Syria having blown it in 2011 and ever since. He can rule Syria using fear (terror) as his tool of choice but can never command respect. Regardless of how much Putin's Russia and Iran gain from Assad's victory I believe that Syria has nothing other than a bleak future in front of it.
Has there been any unrest in the areas of Syria controled by al-Assad, and which contain the vast majority of the population? I guess that most Syrians have reached the conclusion that it is better to have peace with al-Assad than war under the armed opposition. All Assad has to do is give some room to the political opposition, and I believe that Russia will convince him to do just that.

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dagbay
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Re: Two conflicting views on Syria's future.

Post by dagbay » Fri Nov 01, 2019 11:13 am

Here are some basic truths about Syria:
1. Assad, an minority Allawite (a sect of Shia Islam) has used the "civil war" aka another site of the continual SuShi war to clens as many as was possible Sunning Arabs from Syria and replace them with Shia Musls.
2. With as many as half a million killed in Syria and more than 3 million who migrated and 10 million displaced, Syria has a HIGHER population today than in 2011.
3. Syrian economy and water resources were badly mismanaged and cannot support the population other than on impoverished substandard levels.
4. Erdugan realised that Syria will never re-absorb all the Syrian Suni refugees who were housed in Turkey and are a burden on the crumbling local economy. He invaded northern Syria to drive the kurds away from their kin in Turkey and to resettle the Syrian refugees.

The future for Syria is bleak at best.
I'd rather be diving or flying alas for now I am on terra firma.

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Sertorio
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Re: Two conflicting views on Syria's future.

Post by Sertorio » Fri Nov 01, 2019 11:32 am

dagbay wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2019 11:13 am
Here are some basic truths about Syria:
1. Assad, an minority Allawite (a sect of Shia Islam) has used the "civil war" aka another site of the continual SuShi war to clens as many as was possible Sunning Arabs from Syria and replace them with Shia Musls.
2. With as many as half a million killed in Syria and more than 3 million who migrated and 10 million displaced, Syria has a HIGHER population today than in 2011.
3. Syrian economy and water resources were badly mismanaged and cannot support the population other than on impoverished substandard levels.
4. Erdugan realised that Syria will never re-absorb all the Syrian Suni refugees who were housed in Turkey and are a burden on the crumbling local economy. He invaded northern Syria to drive the kurds away from their kin in Turkey and to resettle the Syrian refugees.

The future for Syria is bleak at best.
I wonder on what statistical facts you have based those "basic truths"(?)

Do you have a cristal ball, or have you consulted a seer?... :D

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Milo
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Re: Two conflicting views on Syria's future.

Post by Milo » Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:31 pm

I think the leadership of many countries, including America and Russia, are trying suspiciously hard to convince us that we should care about what happens in Syria.

neverfail
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Re: Two conflicting views on Syria's future.

Post by neverfail » Fri Nov 01, 2019 2:12 pm

dagbay wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2019 11:13 am
Here are some basic truths about Syria:
1. Assad, an minority Allawite (a sect of Shia Islam) has used the "civil war" aka another site of the continual SuShi war to clens as many as was possible Sunning Arabs from Syria and replace them with Shia Musls.
2. With as many as half a million killed in Syria and more than 3 million who migrated and 10 million displaced, Syria has a HIGHER population today than in 2011.
3. Syrian economy and water resources were badly mismanaged and cannot support the population other than on impoverished substandard levels.
4. Erdugan realised that Syria will never re-absorb all the Syrian Suni refugees who were housed in Turkey and are a burden on the crumbling local economy. He invaded northern Syria to drive the kurds away from their kin in Turkey and to resettle the Syrian refugees.

The future for Syria is bleak at best.
As I see it sending those refugees back into that buffer zone serves a dual purpose. Since virtually all of those refugees would be Sunni (Assad's enemies) stuffing them back into that Turkish zone would not be welcomed by Assad. But likewise these would be hostile to the Kurds and non-cooperative with them thus driving a wedge between the Syrian Kurds and the Turkish Kurds. A win-win for Turkey.

I have tried to convince Sertorio that Syria has a bleak future but unfortunately Sertorio still insists on riding his favorite hobby horse.

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dagbay
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Re: Two conflicting views on Syria's future.

Post by dagbay » Fri Nov 01, 2019 2:49 pm

neverfail wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2019 2:12 pm

I have tried to convince Sertorio that Syria has a bleak future but unfortunately Sertorio still insists on riding his favorite hobby horse.
Don't knock riding favorite horses it can be lots of fun....

On a serious note, those Suni Arabs brought in by Erdman are supplying more "rebels" and with Turkish supplied weapons are rekindling the "civil" war and Assad's forces are suffering horrendus defeats just when the areas that he had control over were showing signs of calm. As for Sertorio, even if Assad gains the upper hand with Turkey and it's Suni proxies it is unlikely that the country now split with Kurds ISIS Suni Arabs will ever return to its whole.
I'd rather be diving or flying alas for now I am on terra firma.

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Sertorio
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Re: Two conflicting views on Syria's future.

Post by Sertorio » Fri Nov 01, 2019 4:06 pm

neverfail wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2019 2:12 pm

I have tried to convince Sertorio that Syria has a bleak future but unfortunately Sertorio still insists on riding his favorite hobby horse.
Syria's future will only be bleak as long as the US is present in the ME and keep interfering with events there. Let the US withdraw from the ME and Syria's problems - except reconstruction of destroyed cities - will be solved in less than a year.

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