Trade War

Discussion of current events
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Doc
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Re: Trade War

Post by Doc » Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:26 pm

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/20 ... t-tariffs/

Wall Street Wrong Again – Import Prices Decline During Full Year of Import Tariffs…

Posted on June 15, 2019 by sundance

The latest set of statistics from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shows all of the professional pundit claims of higher prices on imported goods due to Trump tariffs are simply disconnected from reality. In actuality the year-over-year prices of import products are actually dropping:

Image

U.S. Import prices fell 0.3 percent in May, the first monthly decline since a 1.4-percent drop in December. Import prices advanced 1.8 percent from December to April before the downturn in May. The price index for overall imports decreased 1.5 percent over the past 12 months, matching the drop in January. These were the largest over-the-year declines since the index fell 2.2 percent in August 2016. (See table 1.)

The U.S steel and aluminum tariffs have been in effect globally since 2017. Tariffs on softwood lumber (Canada) & durable appliances (S. Korea), same duration. Additionally the first set of tariffs on China is now well over a year old; and the second set of expanded tariffs on China began a month ago; again, no material impact to the delivered price.

Despite two years of claims by the professional media that tariffs would lead to higher prices for U.S. consumers, as you can see above the reality is quite different.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/20 ... t-tariffs/
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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cassowary
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Re: Trade War

Post by cassowary » Mon Jun 17, 2019 12:37 pm

Milo wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:11 pm
cassowary wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 1:06 pm
neverfail wrote:
Sat Jun 15, 2019 7:03 am

cassowary wrote:
Sat Jun 15, 2019 5:34 am
With tariffs, US manufacturers are forced to manufacture in the US and employ US workers, thus boosting their wages. That is what happened. Of course this means that consumers have to pay more for made in USA products. So you have a transfer of wealth from consumers to the workers.
The cost of living goes up for everyone so the workers get no real benefit from any boost to their money wages. costs also goes up for businesses that rely on imported components and/or other tariff-taxed imports. These days that means a lot of them.

If their wages rise more than inflation, it will be ok. I too expected inflation to pick up with the tariffs. But it did not happen.

‘Experts’ wrong again: Trump tariffs have not penalized American consumers
The latest set of statistics from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shows all of the professional pundit claims of higher prices on imported goods due to Trump tariffs are simply disconnected from reality. In actuality the year-over-year prices of import products are actually dropping:
Trump seems to have the magic touch.
Economic theory is great in the abstract, using unassailable logic and fundamental principles grounded in reality. But human beings and their collectivities are complex, and often intervene in the economic sphere for reasons unrelated to the logic of economics.
The standard economic theory is this:

1)Trading partners will retaliate with tariffs of their own and put your workers out of work.
2)Tariffs will boost import prices, stoking inflation.

None of the above happened.
Perhaps because the benefit to local business is exceeding the cost of the tariffs?

IOW, the Chinese were ripping us off, more than those who were in the know wanted to let on?
The Chinese are cutting prices to keep their factories humming. So it seems that their profit margins were high enough to allow them to cut their selling prices without making a loss. But they can't keep that up for long. The Chinese government also lowered the Yuan.
The Imp :D

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Milo
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Re: Trade War

Post by Milo » Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:24 pm

cassowary wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 12:37 pm
Milo wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:11 pm
cassowary wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 1:06 pm
neverfail wrote:
Sat Jun 15, 2019 7:03 am

cassowary wrote:
Sat Jun 15, 2019 5:34 am
With tariffs, US manufacturers are forced to manufacture in the US and employ US workers, thus boosting their wages. That is what happened. Of course this means that consumers have to pay more for made in USA products. So you have a transfer of wealth from consumers to the workers.
The cost of living goes up for everyone so the workers get no real benefit from any boost to their money wages. costs also goes up for businesses that rely on imported components and/or other tariff-taxed imports. These days that means a lot of them.

If their wages rise more than inflation, it will be ok. I too expected inflation to pick up with the tariffs. But it did not happen.

‘Experts’ wrong again: Trump tariffs have not penalized American consumers
The latest set of statistics from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shows all of the professional pundit claims of higher prices on imported goods due to Trump tariffs are simply disconnected from reality. In actuality the year-over-year prices of import products are actually dropping:
Trump seems to have the magic touch.
Economic theory is great in the abstract, using unassailable logic and fundamental principles grounded in reality. But human beings and their collectivities are complex, and often intervene in the economic sphere for reasons unrelated to the logic of economics.
The standard economic theory is this:

1)Trading partners will retaliate with tariffs of their own and put your workers out of work.
2)Tariffs will boost import prices, stoking inflation.

None of the above happened.
Perhaps because the benefit to local business is exceeding the cost of the tariffs?

IOW, the Chinese were ripping us off, more than those who were in the know wanted to let on?
The Chinese are cutting prices to keep their factories humming. So it seems that their profit margins were high enough to allow them to cut their selling prices without making a loss. But they can't keep that up for long. The Chinese government also lowered the Yuan.
Or they could be running at a loss already, I doubt there's an objective way to know.

Let's not forget too that their business model likely depends on stealing IP and the restrictions on their capabilities could already be biting there. A couple of years can be a very long time these days.

I wonder if Trump may do for the 'China Trade' what Reagan did for the arms race with the USSR?

neverfail
Posts: 4128
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Location: Singapore

Re: Trade War

Post by neverfail » Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:50 pm

Milo wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:24 pm
cassowary wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 12:37 pm
Milo wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:11 pm


IOW, the Chinese were ripping us off, more than those who were in the know wanted to let on?
The Chinese are cutting prices to keep their factories humming. So it seems that their profit margins were high enough to allow them to cut their selling prices without making a loss. But they can't keep that up for long. The Chinese government also lowered the Yuan.
Or they could be running at a loss already, I doubt there's an objective way to know.

Let's not forget too that their business model likely depends on stealing IP and the restrictions on their capabilities could already be biting there. A couple of years can be a very long time these days.

I wonder if Trump may do for the 'China Trade' what Reagan did for the arms race with the USSR?
Hi Milo,

A thought has crossed my mind like this:

... the Chinese were ripping us off you say? Since you are Canadian and not a Yank your choice of the word us suggests to me a solidarity of shared interest with the US.

Could you therefore enlighten me: in what way has the PRC been ripping off Canada?

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cassowary
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Re: Trade War

Post by cassowary » Tue Jun 18, 2019 1:18 am

Milo wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:24 pm
cassowary wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 12:37 pm
Milo wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:11 pm
cassowary wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 1:06 pm
neverfail wrote:
Sat Jun 15, 2019 7:03 am

cassowary wrote:
Sat Jun 15, 2019 5:34 am
With tariffs, US manufacturers are forced to manufacture in the US and employ US workers, thus boosting their wages. That is what happened. Of course this means that consumers have to pay more for made in USA products. So you have a transfer of wealth from consumers to the workers.
The cost of living goes up for everyone so the workers get no real benefit from any boost to their money wages. costs also goes up for businesses that rely on imported components and/or other tariff-taxed imports. These days that means a lot of them.

If their wages rise more than inflation, it will be ok. I too expected inflation to pick up with the tariffs. But it did not happen.

‘Experts’ wrong again: Trump tariffs have not penalized American consumers
The latest set of statistics from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shows all of the professional pundit claims of higher prices on imported goods due to Trump tariffs are simply disconnected from reality. In actuality the year-over-year prices of import products are actually dropping:
Trump seems to have the magic touch.
Economic theory is great in the abstract, using unassailable logic and fundamental principles grounded in reality. But human beings and their collectivities are complex, and often intervene in the economic sphere for reasons unrelated to the logic of economics.
The standard economic theory is this:

1)Trading partners will retaliate with tariffs of their own and put your workers out of work.
2)Tariffs will boost import prices, stoking inflation.

None of the above happened.
Perhaps because the benefit to local business is exceeding the cost of the tariffs?

IOW, the Chinese were ripping us off, more than those who were in the know wanted to let on?
The Chinese are cutting prices to keep their factories humming. So it seems that their profit margins were high enough to allow them to cut their selling prices without making a loss. But they can't keep that up for long. The Chinese government also lowered the Yuan.
Or they could be running at a loss already, I doubt there's an objective way to know.

Let's not forget too that their business model likely depends on stealing IP and the restrictions on their capabilities could already be biting there. A couple of years can be a very long time these days.

I wonder if Trump may do for the 'China Trade' what Reagan did for the arms race with the USSR?
I hope so. Then the Chinese people will over throw the CCP in a Filipino type people's power movement. Some sort of flawed democracy may emerge. One can hope, no?
The Imp :D

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Doc
Posts: 3432
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:09 pm
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Re: Trade War

Post by Doc » Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:01 pm

cassowary wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 1:18 am
Milo wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:24 pm
cassowary wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2019 12:37 pm
Milo wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:11 pm
cassowary wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 1:06 pm
neverfail wrote:
Sat Jun 15, 2019 7:03 am




The cost of living goes up for everyone so the workers get no real benefit from any boost to their money wages. costs also goes up for businesses that rely on imported components and/or other tariff-taxed imports. These days that means a lot of them.

If their wages rise more than inflation, it will be ok. I too expected inflation to pick up with the tariffs. But it did not happen.

‘Experts’ wrong again: Trump tariffs have not penalized American consumers
The latest set of statistics from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shows all of the professional pundit claims of higher prices on imported goods due to Trump tariffs are simply disconnected from reality. In actuality the year-over-year prices of import products are actually dropping:
Trump seems to have the magic touch.
Economic theory is great in the abstract, using unassailable logic and fundamental principles grounded in reality. But human beings and their collectivities are complex, and often intervene in the economic sphere for reasons unrelated to the logic of economics.
The standard economic theory is this:

1)Trading partners will retaliate with tariffs of their own and put your workers out of work.
2)Tariffs will boost import prices, stoking inflation.

None of the above happened.
Perhaps because the benefit to local business is exceeding the cost of the tariffs?

IOW, the Chinese were ripping us off, more than those who were in the know wanted to let on?
The Chinese are cutting prices to keep their factories humming. So it seems that their profit margins were high enough to allow them to cut their selling prices without making a loss. But they can't keep that up for long. The Chinese government also lowered the Yuan.
Or they could be running at a loss already, I doubt there's an objective way to know.

Let's not forget too that their business model likely depends on stealing IP and the restrictions on their capabilities could already be biting there. A couple of years can be a very long time these days.

I wonder if Trump may do for the 'China Trade' what Reagan did for the arms race with the USSR?
I hope so. Then the Chinese people will over throw the CCP in a Filipino type people's power movement. Some sort of flawed democracy may emerge. One can hope, no?
Cass I don't think the Chinese people will over throw their CCP masters any time soon.

China: The Perfect High-Tech Totalitarian State

by Judith Bergman
June 18, 2019 at 5:00 am

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/1436 ... technology

In China, censorship, now largely automated, has reached "unprecedented levels of accuracy, aided by machine learning and voice and image recognition." — Cate Cadell, Reuters, May 26, 2019.

As in other Communist regimes, such as that of the former Soviet Union, the Communist ideology does not tolerate any competing narratives. "Religion is a source of authority, and an object of fidelity, that is greater than the state... This characteristic of religion has always been anathema to history's totalitarian despots..." — Thomas F. Farr, President of the Religious Freedom Institute, in testimony before the Congressional-Executive Commission on China, November 28, 2018.

In 2018, China had an estimated 200 million surveillance cameras, with plans for 626 million surveillance cameras by 2020. China's aim is apparently an "Integrated Joint Operations Platform" which will integrate and coordinate data from surveillance cameras with facial recognition technology, citizen ID card numbers, biometric data, license plate numbers and information about vehicle ownership, health, family planning, banking, and legal records, "unusual activity", and any other relevant data that can be gathered about citizens, such as religious practice, travels abroad, and so on, according to reports of local officials and police.

At the moment, China is in the process of fulfilling what Stalin, Hitler and Mao could only dream about: The flawless totalitarian state, powered by digital technology, where the individual has nowhere to flee from the all-seeing eye of the Communist state.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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lzzrdgrrl
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Re: Trade War

Post by lzzrdgrrl » Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:35 pm

Rather off topic but a perspective worth considering:



It's less likely a Clash of Civilisations, it seems, and more like an ominous and not entirely conscious paradigm shift........
I have a certain notoriety among the lesser gods........

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Doc
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Re: Trade War

Post by Doc » Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:57 pm

lzzrdgrrl wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:35 pm
Rather off topic but a perspective worth considering:



It's less likely a Clash of Civilisations, it seems, and more like an ominous and not entirely conscious paradigm shift........
I don't think it is off topic at all. Yes it is not just China. I would add that given the shear number of laws on the books everyone is guilty of committing a crime a day without even knowing it. ("You supply the man and I'll supply the crime" ). and that the SCOTUS just ruled yesterday that double jeopardy is A ok https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... rotections

There has been a revolution in communications which is largely driving control, and lack of privacy I have an answer for that. .....I almost bought a house here about this time last year. Within easy walking distance of one of the two local airports no less .:

“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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